Chinese aluminium producers are expanding plans for factories abroad as domestic smelting capacity approaches the limit set by Beijing. According to a Reuters review published on 28 October 2026, projects representing at least 15 million metric tons of annual production capacity have been planned or announced in other countries.<\/p>\n
Of that total, around 2.85 million tons per year are already under construction or ramping up. The remaining projects are at different stages of development, and there is no certainty that all will be completed.<\/p>\n
In 2017, China introduced a 45-million-ton annual cap on domestic primary aluminium smelting capacity to curb overcapacity and pollution. Electrification, the automotive industry and manufacturing underpin expectations of long-term demand, prompting companies to seek opportunities abroad.<\/p>\n
Indonesia is among the most important destinations. Projects are also planned across the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa. Reuters identifies initiatives by Nanshan Aluminium, Xinfa and Tsingshan, while warning that high energy costs and Chinese oversight of overseas investment could delay some developments.<\/p>\n
A Morgan Stanley forecast cited by the agency suggests the global market could move from a deficit of around 1.1 million tons in 2026 to a surplus of 830,000 tons in 2027 and about 1.8 million tons in 2028. These estimates depend on new capacity actually coming online.<\/p>\n
Experts note that lower aluminium prices could make some projects financially unattractive. The announced 15 million tons should therefore not be confused with output already produced or supply that is certain to materialise.<\/p>\n