ECB survey: forecasters expect 3% euro area inflation in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027

Professional forecasters surveyed by the European Central Bank have raised their inflation expectations for the euro area. In the fourth-quarter 2026 survey, they anticipate average annual inflation of 3.0% in 2026, 2.6% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028, according to figures published on 30 October.

Higher energy prices lift inflation expectations

Compared with the previous survey, the estimate for 2026 is 0.3 percentage points higher and that for 2027 is up by 0.4 points. Respondents link the revisions mainly to higher energy commodity prices and their indirect impact on other goods and services. Longer-term expectations for 2031 remain around 2%.

Stronger growth, but still cautious forecasts

The economists surveyed expect real GDP growth of 1.0% in 2026 and 1.3% in each of 2027 and 2028. Their unemployment expectations stand at 6.4% for 2026, 6.3% for 2027 and 6.2% for 2028.

The survey received 52 responses between 2 and 7 October. It is important to distinguish these figures as forecasts by external professional forecasters, not official projections or policy decisions of the ECB Governing Council. The figures cover the euro area as a whole; they are not a separate forecast for Bulgaria.

Sources: ECB — press release, 30 October 2026; ECB — detailed Survey of Professional Forecasters report, fourth quarter of 2026.

Photo: Markus Spiske / Unsplash — the European Central Bank building in Frankfurt; archive illustration.